In the first Iowa poll results since the third Republican debate, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are still running first and second while Ted Cruz has broken ahead of the remaining pack to third place and within striking distance of Trump, according to a poll conducted by KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA and Monmouth College (IL).
Carson leads among likely Iowa caucus-goers at 28% followed by Trump at 20%. Cruz is in third place at 15% while Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and nearly tied at 10% and 9% respectively.
“Ted Cruz is the only candidate who has improved his standing since the debate, doubling his percentage since the first KBUR-Monmouth College poll in June and about 5 points better than the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average and 6 points higher than the Huffington Post trend,” said Robin Johnson, who hosts the “Talking Politics” radio show on KBUR and teaches part time at Monmouth College. “Republican voters seem to be sorting the race down to five candidates as we move closer to caucus day on February.”
Among the rest of the field, Carly Fiorina is in sixth place at 4%, followed by Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Bobby Jindal at 2%. Rick Santorum and John Kasich are at 1% and the other candidates (Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, and Lindsay Graham) are all under .5%. Four percent of voters were undecided.
Other key takeaways from the poll:
Carson runs about 6 points better among women than men while Trump runs about 4 points better among men than women.
By age, Bush runs best among the youngest voters (18-24), finishing slightly behind Carson; Trump is winning among voters 35-44, as he was in the June KBUR/Monmouth College poll; and Carson runs best among Iowa Republicans 65+ (31%).
Carson has the outright lead in all regions of the state and is tied with Trump in the north central and west central regions. In the KBUR listening area (southeast Iowa), Carson has his highest number (39%), followed by Trump (23%) and Cruz (14%).
Like the previous KBUR/Monmouth College poll, this one also asked a pop culture question on which social media that respondents used most often. Facebook was far and away the most used social media (47%) and Carson leads Trump 29% to 19% among users. Among Republicans who don’t use social media, Carson leads with 32% followed by Cruz at 20%.
The survey was conducted October 29-31 by Douglas Fulmer & Associates and included 874 Republican likely voters statewide. 799 interviews were completed by automated calls and another 75 by live calls to cell phones. The margin of error is + 3.37%.
A third and final KBUR/Monmouth College poll is planned for January.
You can check out the full results here. (PDF document)
